Challenging Myths about China and the Transition to a Zero-Emissions World!

Let's consider some of the factual evidence Garnaut uses to come to this conclusion:

              + in 2023 China installed more than 40% of the global total of new solar and wind energy generation - more than the total of all the developed world.  This is evidence of how China can install zero-emissions technology and infrastructure very quickly at an immense scale.

              + 2013-2023 solar power output increased sixty times.: wind generated energy increased seven times.

              + Nearly half of the 57 nuclear power  plants under construction in the world are in China.

              ++ Zero-emissions energy has supplied almost all of the increased Chinese power generation since 2013.

              +  In 2023, 1/3 of total Chinese grid supply of electricity came from zero-emissions technology (equivalent to 2/3 of US                                                         grid electricity generation and use).

               + Because of the rapid development of zero-emissions technology, Chinese use of thermal coal in 2021 was the same as                                                                                       that in 2013 even though its demand for steel had significantly increased.

              + China is by far the world's major producer of the capital goods for a zero-emissions economy! 

              * China produces:

                                                * 80% of the world's rooftop and ground solar panels (using innovation captured from research centres                                                                                in developed countries [e.g., Australia, University of NSW, Photovoltaic Studies] whose governments were not                            prepared to invest to support the commercialisation of the innovations when it was developed).

                       * 60% of the world's wind turbines, storage batteries and electric cars and other vehicles;

                                            * 50% of all inverters, hydro-electric generators, transmission cables and electrolysers for producing                                                                                    green hydrogen; 

              * Most zero-emission capital goods produced in China are used in China - BUT- its capacity for large scale low-cost             production on an immense scale gives it comparative advantage and significantly expands the possibility of global generation of zero-emissions power across the world, particularly in developing countries. 

  * China has become the world's dominant processor of many of the 'critical minerals'/ 'energy transition minerals' [silicon, lithium,vanadium, graphite, cobalt, nickel, titanium, magnesium, manganese, etc].

 China currently produces 90% of silicon for solar panels and processes 90% of world supplies of lithium.

* China is the biggest manufacturer of electric vehicles - both from Chinese companies and companies from outside China [e.g, Volvo; MG]. These vehicles are generally less expensive and of similar quality to those more expensive from car manufacturers in USA and European countries. 

*More than 50% of new car sales in China are either fully electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles - well ahead of the average of developed countries (e.g., Australia - 12-13%.)

* From all current indications  China's emissions may have peaked in 2023. This is well ahead of its 2030 commitment.

* CONCLUSION:

                                + China has deliberately and strategically developed comparative advantages relative to other developed countries in a number of significant areas of the innovation, technology and infrastructure essential for a transition to a zero-emissions world.  This knowledge, technology and infrastructure developed from a capacity to make significant changes quickly and on immense scales is very important to China, whose coastal populations are very vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise and riverine populations to floods. But the knowledge, technology and infrastructure developed in China is just as essential to other countries, especially developing countries, in moving as quickly as possible to a zero-emissions world. 

International free trade and the capacity to exchange knowledge gained and innovations realised in technology and infrastructure, significantly, but not only in China, have been very important in the gains the world has made against the impact of climate changes and the movement to a zero-emissions world. 

A context of international trade free from individual country's self-interests and  imposed tariffs is absolutely essential for the  most rapid transition to a zero-emissions world.  Similarly, opportunities for the free flow and exchange of  knowledge, innovation and technology  gained by those countries leading the transition to other countries is essential.   

                               + And, as the beginning of this post suggests, both China itself and the world need China to continue to play the role it has in the transition to a zero-emissions world, increasingly moving to processing and production  of goods essential to the transition from zero-emissions energy generation.

                               + Bottom line! - if you are looking to transition your home or business - or your transport- from fossil-fuel driven to renewable energies - regardless of your ideological attitudes towards China - you most probably will be buying and installing renewable energy infrastructure that either is manufactured in China or is influenced by knowledge, innovation and technology developed in that country!

* We in Australia, next time we want to criticise or blame China in regard to its transition to zero-emissions would be well to recognise and remember some of the actual evidence of just how far China has come on the transition- and how important that journey has been and is for the rest of the world's transition. 

* The old adage 'people in glass houses shouldn't throw stones' seems somewhat relevant when we consider the slow crawl Australia is making towards zero-emissions - with especially its current approvals for significantly more fossil-fuel developments and the immense subsidies  continually  provided from public funds to support huge internationally-owned or interested fossil fuel companies- particularly, gas- providing fossil fuels mainly for burning in countries where Australia does not have to count to itself the resultant emissions -   and the 'greenwashing' by large companies through the illegitimate gaining of 'carbon credits' -  and the reluctance to legislate so that the big emitters pay directly for not moving to zero-emissions production!  

* Australia's future economy and industry arguably depends significantly on ensuring effective trading relationships with China. China will remain the producer of many of the goods that other countries, including Australia, require as the basis for everyday living. Increasingly however, those goods will be required to be produced carbon-neutral. 

* Much of the zero-emissions energy produced by China's trajectory will be required domestically leaving insufficient for the processing and refining of the mineral and other components necessary for the production of goods for export to the rest of the world. Initial processing and refining will have to take place in countries that have the potential for vast amounts of non-fossil fuel energy. 

* This is where Australia has comparative advantage. Australia has the potential from sun and wind to be a major producer of non-fossil fuel energy and to use that energy to refine and part process raw materials for export to China. For example, instead, as in the past, our main exports to China being iron ore, bauxite and coal, dug up and shipped out, our exports could well be processed steel and aluminium produced by green hydrogen or semi processed bauxite to alumina using solar power.  In this way, both Australia's and China's economic futures are best served by a co-dependent trading relationship.   

[David Smith for Electrifying Bradfield Inc. - based on information from Garnaut. R. (2024) 'Let's Tax Carbon & Other Ideas for a Better Australia. Latrobe University Press in conjunction with Black Inc.]